NFL conspiracy theory Twitter is having a field day right now.
Of course there’s the Super Bowl logo conspiracy, with fans pointing out that the recent years’ Super Bowl logos have “predicted” who matches up against one another in the big game.
If that theory were to hold up, this year’s matchup would feature the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens.
But another conspiracy theory actually has the Chiefs in the big game.
Now, why would the NFL want to rig the league to put the Chiefs in the Super Bowl? I think that’s pretty obvious.
CBS announced that Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills game was the most-watched Divisional Round game ever, with a whopping 50.393 million viewers. pic.twitter.com/3bsT4ST3xp
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 23, 2024
The Chiefs have been ratings juggernauts this season, thanks in part to the Taylor Swift effect. Since the pop star began dating tight end Travis Kelce and attending Chiefs games in person, viewership for Chiefs games has been through the roof.
Of course the Super Bowl is the most-watched sporting event in the United States every year by a pretty wide margin, so it’s not like the NFL is exactly hurting for ratings. But think of how much higher those ratings will be if the Chiefs take down the Baltimore Ravens and bring the Taylor Swift effect to the sport’s biggest game.
I mean, it makes sense that the NFL would be rooting for the Chiefs…
And after announcing the referees for this weekend’s AFC Championship against the Ravens, NFL fans are suspicious…
Here are the @NFL Championship Weekend referee assignments. #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/Ooy6FQJawV
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) January 22, 2024
The referee for the game at M&T Bank Stadium, home of the Baltimore Ravens is Shawn Smith, a veteran ref who’s been with the NFL since 2015 and has been a referee since 2018.
He also happens to be the referee with the highest winning percentage for road teams – which in this game, is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Shawn Smith is the referee for the Chiefs vs Ravens game this weekend🏆
Road teams have the #1 highest win rate with him
With other refs… home teams win at a 56% rate
With Smith… home team win rates drop to 41%
The NFL hand picked Smith for this game… Interesting🤔 pic.twitter.com/N8tNsAEveq
— Bryce DeGroat (@NFL_Convo) January 24, 2024
Home teams win 56% of their games under other NFL referees. But under Smith, that rate drops to 40%, the lowest percentage of wins for home teams of any referee in the NFL.
Naturally, this has Ravens fans concerned, and conspiracy theorists throwing the flag on the NFL for trying to guarantee a Kansas City Chiefs/Taylor Swift appearance at the Super Bowl.
Based on my initial research, Shawn Smith's crew seems to have the most road wins by any ref crew in the league this year. Other notes I've found is you will see above average amount of pass interference penalties but below average for offensive holding. Don't shoot the messenger https://t.co/84gkQ6ckTg pic.twitter.com/40NWQ3dWbG
— Josh Berman (@Josh_Berman123) January 22, 2024
The NFL pushed the panic button 🚨
They have a ref in their rotation who is a MASSIVE edge to road teams
Road teams win at the #1 highest rate with him…
He penalizes home teams in ways no other ref does… and…
He's calling the Chiefs road gamehttps://t.co/Eljx8ryirX
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 23, 2024
Only 3 Home Teams have won this season in games officiated by Shawn Smith. 18.75% Home win rate. League low.
He's got the Chiefs @ Ravens this weekend. pic.twitter.com/8l5kseQXxj
— The GOAT House (@GoatHouseNFL) January 23, 2024
WILD…. Referee Shawn Smith's assignment to the #Chiefs' road game this week will give them an ADVANTAGE TO WIN, via @SharpFootball:
In the past three years, home teams won at a 55.9% rate with other referees, but with Smith, it drops notably to 40.8%
👀👀👀
On… pic.twitter.com/kD2Bir2Lvd
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 23, 2024
Shawn Smith has penalized the HOME team 700+ more yards than the AWAY team this season.
He’s officiating Ravens vs. Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium.
I have suspicions that Roger Goodell wants Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl… pic.twitter.com/TPAGzlhBvh
— Kyle (@ImKyleMangum) January 24, 2024
Goodell to Shawn Smith: https://t.co/j50cQ80n0l pic.twitter.com/7GhrmPLXcY
— Peyton Gravely (@jpgravely) January 23, 2024
Of course, is there a possibility that these stats don’t really mean a bias against home teams but rather, Smith reffing games where the home team is often the underdog?
Well, yeah, that’s exactly what it means, as this Twitter user broke down…
I simulated this 50,000 times and looked the home team record ATS for the second-lowest refs in every simulation.
The median record for that ref is 18-28. In other words, the reality we witness with Shawn Smith is just one below the median.
— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) January 23, 2024
So it turns out Shawn Smith really doesn’t seem to favor one team versus the other.
But that wouldn’t be a good narrative, would it?
And either way the game turns out this weekend, whether the Chiefs or the Ravens win, one of these conspiracy theories would come true: Either the Chiefs win and prove the theory about the ref, or the Ravens win and prove the logo color conspiracy.
So at least it will give people something to talk about leading up to the Super Bowl.
