It’s finally here.
College football officially returns today, with 16 teams kicking off the 2026 season this weekend with eight Week 0 matchups.
The season officially kicks off with UNC and TCU facing off in Ireland at 11 AM central, followed by San Jose State at USC, NC State at Virginia, Jacksonville State at North Dakota State, Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan, Hawaii at Stanford, New Mexico State at Florida State, and Memphis at UNLV.
While most of the top teams will have to wait until Week 1 to kick off their season next weekend, there are still some great matchups – and a couple that may even have College Football Playoff implications. Memphis and UNLV are expected to be two of the top Group of 5 (or is it Group of 6 now?) teams competing for a playoff spot, and Virginia nearly made the playoffs last year before losing to Duke in the ACC championship game – ultimately keeping the conference champion out of the playoffs entirely and making room for two Group of 5 teams for the first time in playoff history.
And there’s also another team playing today that I have on my radar as a potential playoff team…but more on that later.
Well with college football returning today, I figured now would be a good time to lock in some of my bold predictions for the 2026 season. Of course we have no idea what’s actually going to happen, which is the beauty of college football (as messed up as it is right now), but I’m going to go against the experts and go out on a limb with 10 of my own predictions for the upcoming college football season:
1. Texas will not win the SEC or make the playoffs.
It seems like everybody is all in on Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns this season. The son of Cooper Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli showed significant improvement in the second half of 2025, leading the Longhorns to a 9-3 regular season record after starting the season 3-2. They also return key starters like wide receivers Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley, as well as anchors on both the offensive and defensive lines.
But reports coming out of Austin point to signs of trouble for the Longhorns: Rumors have been swirling about problems in the locker room, and head coach Steve Sarkisian has even acknowledged sloppiness from the offense during scrimmages leading up to the season. And despite his progress last season, based on what I’ve seen, I’m not buying into the Arch Manning hype – nor do I think Sark is a particularly exceptional coach.
Combine these red flags with a brutal schedule, that has Texas facing off with Ohio State in week two, going on the road to face Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M, and a tough home contest against Ole Miss (as well as a potential trap game on the road against Missouri depending on how well running back Ahmad Hardy bounces back when he’s able to return from an offseason gunshot injury), and I could easily see Texas dropping at least 3 and possibly 4 games and missing both the SEC championship game and the college football playoffs.
2. The Heisman Trophy will not go to a quarterback.
As of right now, the field of Heisman favorites is stacked with quarterbacks. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr is the current favorite, with +700 odds on an unnamed betting site (no free ads), followed by Arch Manning, Oregon QB Dante Moore, Miami QB Darian Mensah, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin, and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss.
It’s not until you get to Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith at +1400 that you finally find a non-QB in the Heisman betting odds. But I’m betting those odds change fairly quickly: Notre Dame always seems to find themselves in playoff contention but can never put together a full season, and this year they have several roadblocks in the form of a road game at BYU and a home matchup with Miami, so I’m not convinced that CJ Carr can put together a yearlong resume worthy of the Heisman.
And while the other QBs are no doubt going to be in the conversation, I see several non-QBs who could easily steal the spotlight, including Smith at Ohio State, running back Kewan Lacy at Ole Miss, and Ahmad Hardy at Mizzou: Imagine the feelgood story if Hardy comes back and dominates after being shot in the offseason. (Of course he’s already been ruled out for the first game, which will undoubtedly hurt his chances).
There’s also wide receiver Malachi Toney at Miami, and darkhorse candidate Cam Coleman, a Texas wide receiver who transferred from Auburn following the 2025 season. I think one (or more) of these non-QB candidates is going to leapfrog some of the quarterbacks, with one ultimately taking home the season’s top individual prize with the Heisman Trophy.
3. LSU will not make the playoffs in year 1 under Lane Kiffin.
After spending as much as they did this offseason, LSU made their expectations clear: Anything less than a College Football Playoff appearance is a failure for the Tigers.
Unfortunately, I don’t think bringing in Lane Kiffin, along with quarterback Sam Leavitt from Arizona State, is going to be enough to turn around LSU’s anemic offense. Sure, they’ve spent big money to bring in players, and have ruffled feathers lately by welcoming back players who had previously signed with NFL teams following the 2025 season. And Kiffin is undeniably a top-10, and likely top-5, coach in college football. I think they’ll make the playoffs, and probably even win a national championship, during his tenure in Baton Rouge. But this year I think the SEC will be represented by Georgia and Oklahoma in the playoffs, leaving LSU waiting for their massive investments to pay off.
4. This will be Kalen DeBoer’s final season in Tuscaloosa.
While LSU appears to be heading in the right direction following the disaster that was Brian Kelly’s tenure, the Alabama Crimson Tide are on the opposite path.
DeBoer to me always seemed like a risky hire to replace the legendary Nick Saban, despite his success at Washington. He’s not an SEC guy, and he doesn’t have the grit and toughness of Saban that a school like Alabama needs to maintain their championship ways. Do you really think Alabama would have lost to Vanderbilt in 2024 under Nick Saban? Not a chance.
In fact, the Crimson Tide haven’t lost less than 4 games in two seasons under DeBoer, something that would have been considered a failure under Saban. Despite making the playoffs last year and scoring a first-round win over Oklahoma, and Alabama bizarrely rewarding DeBoer with a contract extension in the offseason, Alabama fans aren’t going to put up with 4-loss seasons very long. If Alabama doesn’t win the SEC, and doesn’t make the playoffs, DeBoer’s comfortable seat will get hot very quick – and if they somehow lose 3 or 4 games during the regular season, the Crimson Tide will be quick to move on despite giving DeBoer an extension just this past offseason.
5. Virginia Tech will make the playoffs.
Penn State may have handed Virginia Tech a playoff berth on a silver platter when they foolishly fired James Franklin after a disappointing start to the 2025 season. But Franklin is one of the top coaches in college football, and he’s wasted no time in loading up his team with key players like Ethan Grunkemeyer – his former quarterback at Penn State – and star wide receiver Que’Sean Brown, a transfer from Duke.
Pair that with an ACC that features only one real playoff contender in Miami (and maybe SMU, though I’m not as high on them as most polls seem to be), and a favorable schedule for the Hokies, and I think Franklin could easily have Virginia Tech in the playoffs in year one, especially if Miami stumbles a year after coming up short in the championship game.
6. Bill Belichick will not be the coach at UNC for the full season.
This one might not even be a hot take at this point, but I’ll be shocked if Bill Belichick finishes another full season as head coach for the UNC Tar Heels. The program has been nothing short of a disaster since the legendary New England Patriots took over, from off-field distractions like his relationship with 25-year-old cheerleader Jordon Hudson to the abrupt suspension of football general manager Michael Lombardi, who was put on leave back in July for undisclosed reasons.
The team will also start the season without defensive coordinator Steve Belichick (son of the head coach), who’s been on medical leave since early this month, with no date currently given for his return. Pair that with absolutely zero evidence that Belichick has figured out how to navigate the college football landscape, and I think the Tar Heels are in for a rough season – one that will ultimately lead to parting ways with their head coach before 2026 is over. The only question for me is whether Belichick makes the decision to step down or whether the university admits their mistake and course corrects themselves.
7. North Dakota State makes the College Football Playoff in their first season in FBS.
Remember when I said there was another dark horse candidate for the playoffs kicking off their season today? For me, it’s the North Dakota State University Bison.
NDSU is entering their first season in FBS, joining college football’s top ranks as a member of the Mountain West Conference following an absolutely dominant run in FCS. The Bison won 10 national championships in 14 seasons in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, and also racked up a 9-5 record against FBS teams even while playing in a lower division.
I expect NDSU to carry that success to FBS, and given their relatively easy schedule in the Mountain West, don’t be surprised when the Bison end the season as the top Group of 5 team and earn themselves a playoff berth in their first season in FBS. (And no, they’re not ineligible because it’s their first season, thanks to a rule change from the NCAA earlier this summer).
8. Oklahoma State goes from worst to first and wins the Big 12.
Things have been rough in Stillwater for a while now, with Oklahoma State coming off of back-to-back seasons in the basement of the Big 12. The Cowboys parted ways with longtime head coach Mike Gundy just three games into the 2025 season, and new head coach Eric Morris wasting no time in bringing in playmakers like quarterback Drew Mestemaker, wide receiver Wyatt Young and running back Caleb Hawkins, who all followed their coach from his previous job at North Texas.
This is an offense that’s going to score a lot of points in a conference that really only features one other playoff contender in Texas Tech. But the Red Raiders have their own problems: The team attempted to bring in quarterback Brendan Sorsby in the offseason, but Sorsby was suspended by the NCAA for gambling during his time at Cincinnati and ultimately decided to withdraw from college football and instead focus on entering the 2027 NFL Draft.
If Oklahoma State can get past Texas Tech – and given their offensive firepower, I believe they can – the Cowboys could go from worst in the Big 12 to the College Football Playoffs in only one season, something that would have been unthinkable before the days of NIL and the transfer portal.
9. Ohio State loses at least 3 games and does not make the Big Ten championship.
The Big Ten has undeniably been the best conference in college football the past few years: They’ve won three straight national championships with three different teams, as Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan have all hoisted the trophy over the past three seasons.
Of course the Buckeyes and head coach Ryan Day are expected to once again compete for not only the Big Ten championship but also the national championship, with Heisman candidates like quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith hoping to avenge last year’s loss to the eventual national champions in the Big Ten championship game, which was followed by a loss to Miami in the playoffs.
But this year’s schedule is brutal for Ohio State: The Buckeyes head out on the road to play at Texas in week 2, while also having to take on reigning national champion Indiana on the road and national champion contender Oregon at home. Throw in a rivalry game against Michigan, which always ends up being a close game no matter what, and a road trip to Los Angeles to take on a USC team with a head coach on the hot seat in Lincoln Riley, and I see Ohio State losing at least 3 games and missing out on the Big Ten championship game – and the playoffs.
Which leads me to my final prediction…
10. The national champion will be the fourth different Big Ten team in four years.
While the SEC has been working to catch up to the Big Ten the past few years, I don’t think this is the year that it happens. Indiana will once again be a title contender, despite losing Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, because Curt Cignetti is quite simply one of the best coaches in the country who has figured out the college football landscape better than just about anybody.
Still, I don’t think it will be Indiana that brings home the national championship for the Big Ten this year. Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks are primed to make a title run with quarterback Dante Moore, and a favorable schedule that presents only one real roadblock in a road game at Ohio State in November. Of course, it’s possible that Kyle Whittingham turns Michigan around and gives the Ducks trouble, but I think if Oregon can get past the Buckeyes, there’s a very real chance that they finish the regular season undefeated and finally win Lanning his first national title.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have football to watch. Make sure to bookmark this page, and feel free to remind me if any of these predictions age poorly in December and January.
