With a somewhat dormant period on the NFL calendar before free agency gets underway in earnest, thankfully we have the impending return of New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers to discuss. Rodgers recently stated in a podcast interview with Eddie Bravo that he hopes to play for up to four more NFL seasons.
Now on the surface, that would seem to buy the Jets a little time to dig themselves out of a seemingly bottomless pit of despair and be nothing but a good thing. Once Rodgers went down on the first series of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles, many wondered if he would just retire, or go through a grueling rehab process to get it together for one final year. That lost 2023 campaign, and the far shorter Super Bowl window that’d come with it, gives the Jets a built-in excuse for their ongoing playoff drought, which stretches back to the 2010 season.
Evidently, the 40-year-old legend has far more ambitious plans:
“How can I be my best with my diet, my fluid intake, everything down to a T to get better, and I got back on the practice field late in the season and couldn’t get to a top speed sprinting, but really been in a good place rehab-wise, from the start, and feeling really good.
I’m hopeful I can play two or three or four more years, but you need to have some good fortune in there too.”
Perhaps we shouldn’t doubt Rodgers, considering he did the cutting-edge SpeedBridge surgery on his Achilles and hit the practice field far sooner than anyone expected. As he explained, though, he couldn’t get up to top speed as a runner, and therefore didn’t want to push to play down the stretch with New York out of the playoff picture.
Let’s assume Rodgers can indeed stay healthy into his mid-40s. Let’s assume he can pull off what only Tom Brady has truly managed to do by continuing to play at a high level at that age. Great news for the Jets, right? Their championship window is wide-open!
That’s a reasonable take to have in theory. However, given how toxic the Jets’ organization has been (and continues to be) for such a long time under the ownership of Woody Johnson, it’s very possible that if New York doesn’t get to at least an AFC Championship Game in the next season or two, Rodgers could force his way out. His contract is voided after the 2025 season.
Think about how good of a situation Rodgers left in Green Bay. You really don’t think he could be easily alienated by the nonsense that goes on in the Jets’ building sooner rather than later? He was talking this year about the team needing to “flush the bullsh*t” in the building that doesn’t contribute to winning. With how Rodgers’ money is structured as of now — that could radically change, given that he took a $33.7 million pay cut upon arrival in New York — a post-June 1 release or trade in 2025 is in play.
Even if the Jets didn’t cut Rodgers loose for zero compensation, or waited till that post-June 1 deadline to trade him for financial purposes, there are so many scenarios in which the Rodgers era could blow up in their faces. They’ve bent the knee to Rodgers’ every whim so far. Isn’t there also a chance Rodgers is the one who alienates the Jets after one to two more years? Check out some of the stuff discussed on the Bravo podcast. This dude is so off the wall.
Back to the pure football hypotheticals: What are the chances that the Jets advance further in the playoffs in 2025 than they do in 2024? I would say this coming season is easily their best chance at winning a Super Bowl. If they aren’t close, resentment builds in the fan base and in the organization. Rodgers is another year older. Staying healthy is one thing. Maintaining an elite physical skill set is another. The coaching staff and front office probably cling to Rodgers in that instance. Sunk cost fallacy is a real thing when so much is at stake. That has disaster written all over it.
So I give it a 2% chance that the 2025 Jets are better than the 2024 edition with Rodgers under center. If they don’t win a Super Bowl, Rodgers is free to walk. Not only will New York not have a QB contingency plan in place if they see through the duration of Rodgers’ contract. Based on his recent comments, he could go to a far more stable franchise, with a history of winning, who just needs a wily veteran/game-managing QB to put them over the top. That could be the situation where Rodgers rides off into the sunset with one more Lombardi Trophy.
Meanwhile, the Jets are left empty-handed no matter how you slice it. New York would almost certainly have a new coaching staff by either 2026 or 2027 if Rodgers fled to another team. They’d be a disaster in ’26 unless a new QB fell into their lap. Probably a soft tank job, leading to a high draft pick in 2027. Then you have to hope that rookie QB has an immediate impact, or else you’re in for another long, losing season.
When you look at how combustible this Jets-Rodgers marriage is from a big-picture perspective, how much freedom he has to jump ship after 2025, and how all-in they are, here’s the reality we’re most likely headed for: A decent Jets team in 2024 who might win one playoff game, followed by a similar result in 2025 or perhaps a one-and-done exit. Rodgers goes to a new team. Jets are bad again for at least two more seasons, fire everyone, and reboot yet again, all the while Rodgers could win a Super Bowl with somebody else.
Hoooooooh baby. The plot thickens in New York. As if whiffing on Zach Wilson wasn’t painful enough, the Jets have, in my inexact scientific estimation, an above-50% chance of setting themselves back an additional five or six years based on their decision to replace Wilson with Rodgers.
