Place your bets now.
Yesterday, the Country Music Association announced its picks for the 60th annual CMA Awards. After what seems like well over a decade of head-scratching nominations, snubs and wins, many were wondering if they would finally diverge from the mainstream stranglehold that they’ve so clearly found themselves in despite the growth of the independent and alt. country scene over the past five years.
The nominees are in, and I have to admit, it’s a mixed bag overall.
Following the trend set by the past two CMA Awards, women absolutely dominate this year’s set of nominees. To absolutely no one’s surprise, Ella Langley is riding the highs of her record-shattering success with “Choosin’ Texas” to a staggering nine nominations. These nominations include her first-ever Entertainer of the Year nod, Album of the Year for Dandelion, Single and Song of the Year for both “Be Her” and “Choosin’ Texas,” Female Vocalist of the Year, Music Event of the Year (“I Can’t Love You Anymore” with Morgan Wallen) and Music Video of the Year (“Choosin’ Texas”).
Right behind her with seven is “Choosin’ Texas” co-writer and superstar, Miranda Lambert, who snagged seven nominations. These include her work on both Langley’s Dandelion and “Choosin’ Texas” as well as Female Vocalist of the Year, and two Musical Event of the Year nods for “A Song to Sing” with Chris Stapleton and “Horses and Divorces” with Kacey Musgraves.
Speaking of Musgraves, she made her grand return to the top of the nominations at the CMAs with five. This year, she scored Female Vocalist of the Year, Album of the Year for Middle of Nowhere, Song and Music Video of the Year for “Dry Spell” and the aforementioned Musical Event of the Year for “Horses and Divorces” with Lambert.
Leading the charge for the men are the likes of Chris Stapleton, Cody Johnson and Stephen Wilson Jr with four nominations. In particular, Wilson Jr. is primed to have a huge night. As a fan-favorite amongst many alt. country fans and us here at Whiskey Riff, the “I’m a Song” singer snagged four nods, including his first-ever Male Vocalist of the Year mention, New Artist of the Year and Song and Music Video of the Year for “Gary.”
Unsurprisingly, the Vocal Duo and Group of the Year leaves a lot to be desired. In an era filled with some of the most exciting bands in the alt. country scene, the only two notable nominees in both categories are The Red Clay Strays and Muscadine Bloodline.
The Group of the Year nominees, in particular, are simply baffling, with Lady A, Little Big Town and Old Dominion continuing to receive nominations. Duos, on the other hand, are also as boring as ever, with Brooks & Dunn receiving their auto-bid alongside Thelma & James, Dan + Shay and Brothers Osborne.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Album of the Year is shaping up to be one of the better set of nominees we’ve seen in years. Here, Parker McCollum’s self-titled record will compete against the likes of Zach Top’s Ain’t In It For My Health, Langley’s Dandelion, Musgraves’ Middle of Nowhere and Luke Combs’ The Way I Am.
Finally, Entertainer of the Year will see Langley, Johnson and Stapleton compete against Luke Combs and Lainey Wilson for the night’s biggest honor.
Now that you have a brief rundown of the most notable nominations and the context surrounding them, let’s dive into some predictions.
Male Vocalist of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
- Zach Top
- Stephen Wilson Jr.
All things considered, Male Vocalist of the Year is pretty stacked this year. With all artists having pretty stellar years in 2026, it’s essentially anyone’s game. Stapleton is one of the greatest of all time, despite not releasing much music lately. CoJo has been on a hot-streak with the release of Banks of the Trinity this summer and scoring Entertainer of the Year at the ACMs. Then you have a wildcard that I personally love with the uber-talented, scientist-turned-country star, Stephen Wilson Jr., up for his first Male Vocalist nod.
Personally, I see this coming down to Combs and Top. With Combs having a massive year in 2026, breaking attendance records throughout his My Kinda Saturday Night Tour and dropping a rock-solid album with The Way I Am, he could easily grab the trophy. That being said, I think Top can ride the wave of his first-career Grammy win for Best Traditional Country Album earlier in the year all the way to his first Male Vocalist of the Year award.
Should Win: Zach Top
Predicted Winner: Zach Top
Female Vocalist of the Year
- Miranda Lambert
- Ella Langley
- Megan Moroney
- Kacey Musgraves
- Lainey Wilson
Simply put, there is no reality where Ella Langley doesn’t win Female Vocalist. As the most popular artist not just in country music, but in music in general, she should truly be a unanimous winner.
I could give a thousand-word explanation on why she should and will win, but I think the numbers (and quality of her music) simply speak for themselves. If you want more information surrounding her historic run with “Choosin’ Texas,” read HERE.
Should Win: Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: Ella Langley
Single of the Year
- “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
- “Be Her” – Ella Langley
- “I Knew It, I Knew You” – Taylor Swift
- “Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson
- “The Fall” – Cody Johnson
There’s simply no reality where “Choosin’ Texas,” which will break Mariah Carey’s record for most weeks spent at #1 on the Hot 100 by the time the show airs, doesn’t win. The track is primed to be the biggest hit in American history, and there’s simply no reason not to reward the song for its record-breaking success.
Should Win: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
Song of the Year
- “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
- “Be Her” – Ella Langley
- “Beautiful Things” – Megan Moroney
- “Dry Spell” – Kacey Musgraves
- “Gary” – Stephen Wilson Jr.
Song of the Year, which focuses on the lyrical composition of the song rather than the production and chart-success like Single of the Year does, leaves the door open for other songs other than Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas.”
With that being said, however, I truly don’t see voters ignoring the unprecedented success of “Choosin’ Texas.” Though I’d personally give the slight edge to Wilson Jr.’s “Gary,” given its incredibly raw, honest look at the current state of blue-collar workers in the country and the problems many like to ignore, I don’t see a reality where it edges out Langley’s megahit.
Should Win: “Gary” – Stephen Wilson Jr.
Predicted Winner: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
New Artist of the Year
- Avery Anna
- Carter Faith
- Emily Ann Roberts
- Tucker Wetmore
- Stephen Wilson Jr.
Similar to the ACMs earlier in the year, the CMA Awards have two returning nominees with Stephen Wilson Jr. and Tucker Wetmore. Though there’s a plethora of missing artists here, such as Wyatt Flores, Dylan Gossett, Kashus Culpepper, Kaitlin Butts and Willow Avalon, who all could have received nods, it’s a fairly solid mix.
Though I’d love to see Wilson Jr. get the win on his second nomination, I have a feeling this is going to be a two-horse race between Wetmore, who has been red-hot in the pop-country sphere with big hits like “Brunette,” “Wind Up Missing You” and “3,2,1″ and Carter Faith, who has received a whole lot of love and got an Album of the Year nomination for her debut album, Cherry Valley, at the ACMs.
That being said, I think Faith edges out Wetmore and brings home New Artist of the Year thanks to the success of Cherry Valley.
Should Win: Stephen Wilson Jr.
Predicted Winner: Carter Faith
Vocal Duo of the Year
- Brooks & Dunn
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- Muscadine Bloodline
- Thelma & James
Quite frankly, Duo of the Year is always the most boring major category at both the ACMs and CMAs. When you take a look around the genre from a broad perspective, none of these selections is pushing the needle the way others in the respective categories are.
Obviously, Muscadine Bloodline is far and away the best duo here, being one of the best in the jam-packed indie scene. Unfortunately for Muscadine, I don’t think the CMAs will show them much love despite them being the clear winner. With that being said, I think Brooks & Dunn will be the default pick to win, given the fact that they won last year.
Should Win: Muscadine Bloodline
Predicted Winner: Brooks & Dunn
Vocal Group of the Year
- Lady A
- Little Big Town
- Midland
- Old Dominion
- The Red Clay Strays
Unlike this year’s ACM Awards, which were jam-packed with talent with the likes of 49 Winchester, Flatland Cavalry AND The Red Clay Strays, the CMA’s Vocal Group of the Year nominees are simply laughable. Despite there being some of the best bands in the history of the genre residing in the alternative scene, such as Turnpike Troubadours, Whiskey Myers, Shane Smith and the Saints, Treaty Oak Revival, Silverada and the aforementioned groups, the CMAs decided to roll out Lady A (who has not dropped a non-holiday album since 2021), Little Big Town and Old Dominion alongside Midland (a fine albiet boring pick) and The Strays.
Given how hot Red Clay is, taking home Group of the Year at both the ACMs and CMAs the past year, they should take home this award pretty easily — deservedly so, I might add.
Should Win: The Red Clay Strays
Predicted Winner: The Red Clay Strays
Musical Event of the Year
- “A Song to Sing” – Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton
- “Horses and Divorces” – Kacey Musgraves & Miranda Lambert
- “I Can’t Love You Anymore” – Ella Langley & Morgan Wallen
- “If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay” – Carly Pearce & Riley Green
- “McArthur” – HARDY, Eric Church, Morgan Wallen & Tim McGraw
Out of all the categories, I think Musical Event of the Year is one of the few without a clear-cut winner. Given how much the CMAs seem to have a disdain for Wallen, I don’t see even Langley pushing the needle on “I Can’t Love You Anymore.” The same goes for his mega collab with HARDY, Eric Church and Tim McGraw on “McArthur,” which I personally think is the most interesting song here.
Because of this, I see the CMAs going with Kacey Musgraves and Miranda Lambert’s “Horses and Divorces.” It just makes too much sense given the drama/history between the two female country superstars and all the storylines that were made due to their long-awaited reunion.
Should Win: “McArthur” – HARDY, Eric Church, Morgan Wallen & Tim McGraw
Predicted Winner: “Horses and Divorces” – Kacey Musgraves & Miranda Lambert
Music Video of the Year
- “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
- “Dry Spell” – Kacey Musgraves
- “Gary” – Stephen Wilson Jr.
- “The Fall” – Cody Johnson
- “White Horse” – Chris Stapleton
Music videos seem to be a dying art these days, especially when you consider the fact that CMT recently cancelled its long-running Hot 20 Countdown series. Personally, I haven’t heard much buzz surrounding many of the music videos nominated here (or any music videos recently, honestly) outside of, you guessed it, “Choosin’ Texas.”
Like many of Langley’s categories, I don’t see her losing this one either. Even ignoring the fact that she co-directed the music video, she employed a star-studded cast, including the likes of Miranda Lambert, Luke Grimes, Kaitlin Butts, Wade Bowen, Tanner Usrey, Dale Brisby and more.
She showed a lot of love to country music and the Texas scene in particular in the extremely cinematic music video, and I don’t see that going unnoticed
Should Win: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: “Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley
Album of the Year
- Ain’t In It For My Health – Zach Top
- Dandelion – Ella Langley
- Middle of Nowhere – Kacey Musgraves
- Parker McCollum – Parker McCollum
- The Way I Am – Luke Combs
The second biggest award of the night, Album of the Year, should be quite an interesting one. From a mainstream perspective, it’s a good selection. Even ignoring the egregious snub of Eric Church’s Evangeline vs. The Machine, it was a welcome surprise to see Parker McCollum receive some love for his underrated self-titled record and Kacey Musgraves return on Middle of Nowhere.
That being said, I see this being a two-horse race between Zach Top and Ella Langley. Though I would personally give AOTY to Top, considering how traditional and impressive the production is, yet again, I don’t see Langley dropping this one either. Beyond the incredible numbers it’s put up over the year, it’s an undoubtedly stellar effort that will be awarded on what’s primed to be a huge night for the Alabama native.
Should Win: Ain’t In It For My Health – Zach Top
Predicted Winner: Dandelion – Ella Langley
Entertainer of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Ella Langley
- Chris Stapleton
- Lainey Wilson
Most years, my default position on Entertainer of the Year is “Love him or hate him, Morgan Wallen should take home the trophy based on his record-breaking numbers alone.” This year, however, he’s not even nominated, much to the chagrin of his fanbase. That leaves us with a fairly tight race between Luke Combs, Cody Johnson, Ella Langley, Chris Stapleton and Lainey Wilson.
As I said with Female Vocalist of the Year, I personally don’t see how voters can ignore the cultural impact that Langley has had on the genre throughout 2026. Beyond the record-breaking success of “Choosin’ Texas,” she’s snagged brand deals at will, sold out arenas and amphitheaters with ease and made high-profile collaborations with the likes of Wallen, Koe Wetzel, Miranda Lambert and more seemingly monthly. Simply put, she is a torchbearer of the genre by all means.
With that being said, this is the CMA Awards we’re talking about. As we saw with Wilson somehow winning over Wallen last year, the clear-cut winner doesn’t always receive the award. I fear that may happen to Langley due to her age compared to other nominees.
Given the fact that the CMAs are big fans of Combs, giving him two EOTYs the past five years, I believe that they may give it to him after his big year and subsequently deem it “too early” to give Langley the biggest award of the night.
Though I’d love to be proven wrong, I think Combs will pull off the upset and take home Entertainer of the Year.
Should Win: Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: Luke Combs
