Here we go…
With the 59th Annual CMA Awards airing live from the Bridgestone Arena in just ONE week on November 19 at 7 p.m. CT on ABC, we’re getting closer to one of the biggest nights in country music all year. And while there’s always a lot to criticize with some of the baffling picks throughout the list of nominees, it’s always fun to sit back and try to predict the winners.
In case you missed the list of nominees back in September, here’s a brief rundown of how the 2025 CMAs ended up shaping up.
Despite not getting as much love as their male counterparts on country radio, three women are the top-nominated artists at this year’s CMA Awards with Lainey Wilson, Megan Moroney and Ella Langley all receiving a staggering six nominations across the 12 major categories.
Receiving similar love is none other than Zach Top. Riding the highs of his debut album, Cold Beer & Country Music, last year, the “Use Me” singer received five nominations: Male Vocalist of the Year, New Artist of the Year, Song of the Year (“I Never Lie”), Single of the Year (“I Never Lie”) and Album of the Year (Cold Beer & Country Music).
Reigning CMA Entertainer of the Year, Morgan Wallen, is nominated for three awards, including Entertainer of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year and Album of the Year (I’m The Problem). He will compete with Luke Combs, Lainey Wilson, Cody Johnson and Chris Stapleton in an attempt to become the first back-to-back EOTY winner since Combs himself did it back in 2021-22.
Other notable nominations include Stephen Wilson Jr. getting a nod for New Artist of the Year off the back of the phenomenal, Søn of Dad, The Red Clay Strays picking up their second-straight Group of the Year nominations and Blake Shelton’s “Texas” laughably getting a songwriting nomination for Song of the Year.
Now that you have a brief rundown of the most notable nominations and the context surrounding them, let’s dive into some predictions.
Male Vocalist of the Year
- Chris Stapleton
- Morgan Wallen
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Zach Top
At this point, Male Vocalist of the Year should simply be renamed the “Chris Stapleton Award” given the fact that he’s won it eight times in the past decade. While it seems to be a common sentiment among country fans online that Stapleton has already won the award too many times already, it’s been the correct assessment each and every time.
You can make the argument that Stapleton hasn’t released enough music over the past year compared to the likes of Wallen, Combs, Johnson and Top, but as long as Stapleton is still active, he’s going to be the frontrunner for Male Vocalist each and every year (for good reason).
Should Win: Chris Stapleton
Predicted Winner: Chris Stapleton
Female Vocalist of the Year
- Lainey Wilson
- Ella Langley
- Megan Moroney
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Miranda Lambert
Similar to Stapleton, Female Vocalist of the Year has been Lainey Wilson’s award to lose for the past few years as she seeks to secure her fourth straight win in 2025. She’ll have some stiff competition with the likes of Langley and Moroney in the mix this year.
Personally, I could easily see Langley taking home the award to cap off her monster year. Unfortunately, I think it’s a bit “too early” as many like to say when it comes to these award shows. I see the CMAs making the “safe” choice and going with Wilson once again this year.
Should Win: Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: Lainey Wilson
Vocal Group of the Year
- Old Dominion
- The Red Clay Strays
- Little Big Town
- Lady A
- Rascal Flatts
Old Dominion has, unfortunately, won Vocal Group of the Year a staggering eight years in a row. Of course, this has been nothing short of infuriating when there are a countless number of generational bands such as the Turnpike Troubadours and Whiskey Myers (among others) getting snubbed. At the end of the day, this is the CMA Awards, and I highly doubt they will divert from the Old Dominion formula they’ve stayed so dedicated to.
The Red Clay Strays should be the frontrunners here, but I’d be shocked if Old Dominion doesn’t take it home for a ninth straight year.
Should Win: The Red Clay Strays
Predicted Winner: Old Dominion
Vocal Duo of the Year
- Brooks & Dunn
- Dan + Shay
- Brothers Osborne
- The War and Treaty
- Maddie & Tae
If the CMAs are going to continue to ignore all the bands and duos in the independent and alternative country scene, they might as well combine Duo and Group together. This year, we have one of the weakest Duo of the Year fields to date. Quite frankly, none of the nominees are pushing the needle the way others in the respective categories are, which makes this prediction even harder.
Over the past decade, it’s consistently been Brothers Osborne’s to lose, with the duo taking home six the past decade. Though Brooks & Dunn took home their first in nearly two decades last year, I don’t see them repeating again this year. Against all odds, I unfortunately see Dan + Shay taking home the award, mainly due to the fact that they’re simply one of the most popular names here.
Should Win: Brothers Osborne
Predicted Winner: Dan + Shay
Single of the Year
- “4X4XU” – Lainey Wilson
- “Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma” – Luke Combs
- “Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney
- “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
- “You Look Like You Love Me” – Ella Langley ft. Riley Green
Single of the Year, which focuses on the production of a song, is quite an interesting category this year. Given the fact that the CMAs themselves note that the winner should have the “greatest commercial and cultural impact” out of all the songs nominated in the category, I don’t see Ella Langley and Riley Green losing this one for “You Look Like You Love Me.”
Though all of the songs in the field have quite obviously experienced their fair share of success when it comes to both virality and chart success, none have quite captured the success of “You Look Like You Love Me.” Simply put, that song has been everywhere since its release last May, and I don’t see the CMAs ignoring that.
Should Win: “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
Predicted Winner: “You Look Like You Love Me” – Ella Langley ft. Riley Green
Song of the Year
- “4X4XU” – Lainey Wilson
- “Am I Okay? – Megan Moroney
- “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
- “Texas” – Blake Shelton
- “You Look Like You Love Me” – Ella Langley ft. Riley Green
Song of the Year, which focuses on the lyrical composition of the song rather than the production like Single of the Year does, is Zach Top’s to lose, in my opinion. Quite frankly, this is a shockingly weak field, considering the quality of songs we’ve gotten throughout the year.
Ignoring the ridiculous fact that Blake Shelton’s bro-country-inspired “Texas” is somehow nominated for this award, I think this will be a two-way battle between Top and Langley. While “You Look Like You Love Me” is the clear winner for an award like Single of the Year, “I Never Lie” is the clear favorite for Song of the Year to me.
A stone-cold country ballad, complete with tongue-in-cheek lyrics, “I Never Lie” is more than deserving of Song of the Year.
Should Win: “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
Predicted Winner: “I Never Lie” – Zach Top
New Artist of the Year
- Zach Top
- Ella Langley
- Stephen Wilson Jr.
- Tucker Wetmore
- Shaboozey
Against all odds, New Artist of the Year is the most highly contested award this year. While it’s great to see Stephen Wilson Jr. get a nod (and subsequently become the oldest artist ever nominated for the award), this is undoubtedly a dogfight between Ella Langley and Zach Top.
In my opinion, Top should be the frontrunner simply due to his key role as a torchbearer of the current rise of traditional country we’ve seen the past year. With that being said, Langley is simply too hot at the moment, riding the waves of the continued success of “you look like you love me” and the recent buzz of her latest, Miranda Lambert co-written single, “Choosin’ Texas.” It’ll be an incredibly tight race, but I see Langley just edging out the “I Never Lie” singer here.
Should Win: Zach Top
Predicted Winner: Ella Langley
Musician of the Year
- Jenee Fleenor (Fiddle)
- Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar)
- Brett Mason (Guitar)
- Rob McNelley (Guitar)
- Derek Wells (Guitar)
Always an interesting category, Musician of the Year is certainly not the most popular of the main fields. With that being said, it’s always great to see the unsung heroes involved in the creation of the songs and albums millions know and love.
Personally, it’s hard to bet against Jennee Fleenor’s world-class fiddle work. With that being said, however, I can easily see Rob McNelley taking this one home, thanks in part to his work on major albums such as Eric Church’s Evangeline Vs. the Machine, Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind and Riley Green’s Don’t Mind If I Do.
Should Win: Jenee Fleenor
Predicted Winner: Rob McNelley
Music Video of the Year
- “Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney
- “I’m Gonna Love You” – Cody Johnson & Carrie Underwood
- “Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson
- “Think I’m In Love With You” – Chris Stapleton
- “You Look Like You Love Me” – Ella Langley & Riley Green
Music videos seem to be a dying art these days, especially when you consider the fact that CMT recently cancelled their long-running Hot 20 Countdown series. Personally, I haven’t heard much buzz surrounding any of the music videos nominated here (or any music video in the year 2025, honestly). With that being said, I see this being a race between Megan Moroney’s “Am I Okay?” and Ella Langley’s “You Look Like You Love Me.” Given the fact that Langley already won Visual Media of the Year earlier at the ACMs, I’ll give it a slight advantage here.
Should Win: “Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney
Predicted Winner: “You Look Like You Love Me” – Ella Langley & Riley Green
Musical Event of the Year
- “Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green ft. Ella Langley
- “Hard Fought Hallelujah” – Brandon Lake w/ Jelly Roll
- “I’m Gonna Love You” – Cody Johnson w/ Carrie Underwood
- “Pour Me A Drink” – Post Malone ft. Blake Shelton
- “You Had to Be There” – Megan Moroney ft. Kenny Chesney
Overall, Musical Event of the Year is a bit of a boring collection of songs. Unlike last year, which was simply stacked with high-profile collaborations such as the aforementioned “You Look Like You Love Me” and other smash hits, “I Had Some Help,” “I Remember Everything” and “Man Made a Bar,” nothing jumps out at you.
Though I could see Post Malone potentially scoring his first-ever CMA Award due to the popularity of “Pour Me A Drink,” I see this one going to Cody Johnson and Carrie Underwood’s “I’m Gonna Love You.”
Should Win: “Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green ft. Ella Langley
Predicted Winner: “I’m Gonna Love You” – Cody Johnson w/ Carrie Underwood
Album of the Year
- Am I Okay? – Megan Moroney
- Cold Beer & Country Music – Zach Top
- F-1 Trillion – Post Malone
- I’m The Problem – Morgan Wallen
- Whirlwind – Lainey Wilson
The second biggest award of the night, Album of the Year, should be quite an interesting one. Unfortunately for Morgan Wallen fans, I don’t see him taking the trophy home. While anything is possible, I don’t see Album of the Year going to anyone other than Lainey Wilson or Zach Top. Easily the most traditional country albums of the nominees, it can go either way between the two.
Though I’d love to see Top cement himself in country music history and secure Album of the Year with his debut album, I think Wilson just edges him out, given the fact that she’s become an award show darling the past few years.
Should Win: Cold Beer & Country Music – Zach Top
Predicted Winner: Whirlwind – Lainey Wilson
Entertainer of the Year
- Morgan Wallen
- Luke Combs
- Lainey Wilson
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
This one shouldn’t be controversial at all…
Let’s face it, there’s no artist in country music right now that can even come close to what Morgan Wallen is doing on a global scale. Between the sold-out stadium shows, record-breaking chart success and popularity with country fans and non-country fans alike, none can compare to the “Last Night” singer today.
With that being said, however, we’ve already seen just how opposed he is to seemingly any and all award shows, barely recognizing his Entertainer of the Year win at last year’s CMA Awards and famously not submitting nominations for the upcoming Grammys in February.
It’s no secret that organizations such as the CMAs take note of this. And with that, I think that Wallen, despite being the clear-cut winner by any numerical metric, will drop the award to the show’s host, Lainey Wilson.
Should Win: Morgan Wallen
Predicted Winner: Lainey Wilson
