Week 1 NFL Overreactions: The Bengals Are Dead, Bo Nix Is A Bust, Where Bill Belichick Will Coach In 2025 & More

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Overreacting to the NFL’s Week 1 slate. A tradition unlike any other. And no, I don’t mean Jim Nantz when he refers to The Masters. While we’re here, if you don’t know why Nantz says, “hello friends” at the top of his broadcasts, do yourself a favor and follow the link. That phrase is top of mind for me, because Baker Mayfield cheekily kicked off a press conference earlier this week with that quote. Then, the former No. 1 overall pick proceeded to be far and away the best quarterback in the NFL during Sunday’s Week 1 action.

People are wondering if Baker is, in fact, the best QB in the league. If you took Week 1 at face value, the answer would be an unequivocal yes, with Patrick Mahomes serving as his only competition. Baker certainly spoiled the debut of his Commanders rookie counterpart Jayden Daniels, whose final stats, including two rushing TDs, were inflated by garbage time.

To say Baker is the NFL’s QB1, though, would be an overreaction. Top-10? Maybe not so much! Who would’ve thunk it some years back the Browns kicked him to the curb in favor of Deshaun Watson?

I don’t know if it’s the more widespread movement around the league to not play starters in the preseason, but one thing that isn’t an overreaction is how bad offenses were, which makes Baker’s hot start all the more impressive.

Without further ado, let’s get into my favorite overreactions to NFL Week 1 so far, and assess the validity of said overreactions.

Bo Nix is a BUST

We might as well start there, because quarterbacks are the most intriguing players. We touched on Daniels already.

Caleb Williams got bailed out by a Will Levis pick-six and a blocked punt for a touchdown in the Bears’ 24-17 win over the Titans, which Tennessee led 17-0 in the early going. Despite Caleb only throwing for 93 yards on 29 attempts, the most egregious offender among the first-year starting QBs was the guy who was deemed most “pro-ready.” That’d be Denver Broncos signal-caller Bo Nix.

No amount of Sean Payton magic could spare Nix from a horrendous outing in Seattle against new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense. By any metric, Nix looked awful.

While you can argue Denver doesn’t have much skill position-wise, the way Nix was hyped you’d think he could elevate his supporting cast. Plus, the Broncos have significant contracts invested in four of their five starts on the offensive line. Nix might’ve been the 12th overall pick, but he was the sixth QB drafted. Sure looked like it on Sunday.

I’ve been beating the drum about how I think Nix ain’t it since the pre-draft process began. If he isn’t taking a three- or five-step drop/operating the quick game, he get skittish and panicky in the pocket. Although he can make off-schedule plays from time to time, and is a better athlete with a better arm than he gets credit for, Nix is still pretty raw for a guy who made 61 college starts. Shouldn’t he have so much sage wisdom from all that experience to play better right out the gates?

When the announcer is going, “Oh no” as you chuck your second interception of the afternoon in an area with multiple defenders who have a better play on the ball than your intended target, you might be doing it wrong.

Here’s the most alarming part of all: Studly Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon said after the game that, for all Macdonald’s schematic genius, they barely threw anything at Nix that he’d consider super complicated.

My take: Nix can ultimately be a respectable, top-15-ish starter with Sean Payton’s guidance and an added weapon or two in the coming years. It’s an overreaction to say he’ll be a bust after one start. That said, as somebody who expected him to struggle, he looked worse than I anticipated.

The Cincinnati Bengals have NO CHANCE at the playoffs

A trendy Super Bowl pick and the only formidable challenger to the Chiefs to come along in recent years, it’s understandable that with a trip to Kansas City looming in Week 2, the Bengals might’ve overlooked the Patriots to start their 2024 campaign. Despite the Ja’Marr Chase contract dispute and Tee Higgins out of the lineup with a bad hammy, this was supposed to be Joe Burrow at his healthiest for a season opener since his rookie season.

Cincinnati is no stranger to slow starts during the Burrow era. This one was particularly alarming. As a fan of the team, I was so disappointed that I couldn’t really emote. Joe Cool looked more skittish in the pocket than I can ever remember. That’s one of the typical strengths of his game.

Bad tackling on defense. A sleepwalking zombie of an offensive game plan. Two lost fumbles, including one at the goal line. A touchdown catch that Mike Gesicki couldn’t control to the ground. It really was Murphy’s law manifest on Sunday in Cincy. Teddy K has the right idea. All the Bengals can do is turn the page.

Full disclosure: There’s some bias to the following take: I’m not overreacting. The Bengals have laid giant eggs in the first two weeks of the season before and rallied back to be a legit contender. They for some reason play the Chiefs tougher than anyone. If they flip a switch and somehow steal a “W” at Arrowhead next Sunday, all will be forgiven.

YOU are the 2025 New York Giants head coach, Bill Belichick

Tough Week 1 for the G-Men. Watching Saquon Barkley rack up three TDs for the rival Eagles in Brazil, then seeing Daniel Jones lead the offense against the projected NFC North last-place Minnesota Vikings with throws like this:

The retroactive OOF-O-Meter on the Giants’ offseason Hard Knocks is making my brain damn near short-circuit.

Right before NFL Sunday kicked off, Bill Belichick leaked to Adam Schefter that he wants to return to coaching in 2025, but he will be choosy about where he goes. Given how awful the Carolina Panthers are under David Tepper’s ownership, and the fact that Belichick used to be the Giants’ defensive coordinator, New York seems like The Hoodie’s proper stage for a grand return to the coaching ranks.

Belichick is an ardent student of football history. He spent more than a decade with the G-Men, only to lose twice to them in the Super Bowl. It’d be the perfect, poetic ending to his career to come back and turn the Giants around. Jones has zero guaranteed money on his contract after this season. The deck will be cleared. The Giants are desperate, but have two stud pass-rushers in Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux for Belichick to work with.

As long as a cheap, young QB can be found to replace Jones — or hell, why not via a blockbuster trade? — it’s not an overreaction to say 2022 Coach of the Year Brian Daboll will be out of a job by January, and Belichick will be in line to take the reins. Not saying it’s the best idea to give Belichick carte blanche given how bad the end of his Patriots tenure was, but the Giants are desperate. They’ll want to make a splash. The big-market media intrigue would be massive. I’m 94% sure Belichick to the G-Men will come to pass.

NOBODY’S got it better than the Los Angeles Chargers

Had to even this puppy out with two overreactions versus two “not” overreactions. So you see where I’m going with this. The Jim Harbaugh era is here in full force for the long-suffering Chargers franchise. All Harbaugh does is win, and win right away, everywhere he goes. Week 1 was no exception, as the Bolts stayed committed to their running game amid early struggles, and wound up beating the snot out of the Raiders 22-10 to start 1-0 for the season and in the division.

Unless your team is playing against Harbaugh’s squad on a given day, how do you not cheer for them? Justin Herbert is in all his glory — and what a day for JK Dobbins.

I thought the Chargers had the best draft class overall — and their rolling of the dice on the oft-injured Dobbins paid immediate dividends.

Counting on rookies can be tricky, which tempered my optimism about the Chargers’ 2024 viability a tad before Week 1. But my lord, Joe Alt’s move from left tackle at Notre Dame to right tackle and drawing Maxx Crosby in his first NFL action went incredibly well. Crosby was locked TF up.

Alt was my sixth-ranked overall player in the 2024 draft, and new Bolts wideout Ladd McConkey was my 11th-rated prospect. We already covered how great Alt was; McConkey led the passing attack with five catches, 39 yards, and a filthy juke-filled TD catch:

So yeah, not an overreaction at all to say nobody has it better than Harbaugh’s Chargers. They are rolling out of the gates. And they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team in Week 2 that just got annihilated 47-10 by the Saints.

Bonus non-overreaction that I may only be 49.8% kidding about: Bryce Young working at a Raising Caine’s sooner rather than later.

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